FAT-UK-26715 Jan 09

As we move into 2009, the financial headlines are overwhelmingly negative. Bad news sells, and right now, bad news reigns. This sentiment was acutely demonstrated in recent employment numbers emanating from the US. The world’s largest economy lost over half a million jobs in December, and negative revisions to October and November data saw another 154,000 increase in unemployment. Since 2007, ‘payroll employment’ has shrunk by 2.6 million in the US.

With the 2008 chapter now closed, investors will be hoping that such a dismissive market will never be encountered again. Many a decent stock was thrown out with the bathwater, being forced to depressed levels. As many panicked those able to keep their heads saw buying opportunities surface in November. Indeed one such was Randgold Resources which went on to rally 70 percent in two months.

Pub companies might not jump out as an obvious defensive play, despite the old adage ‘people drink more in a recession’. Certainly as belts tighten the ‘stay at home’ inclination will rise, but at the same time we are highly unlikely to see a tumultuous decline in pub patronage which is firmly etched into the British Culture. More likely there will be an increasing tendency for drinkers to differentiate on price and value. Such will be to the benefit of savvy, low cost, low price operators like JD Wetherspoon.

Abacus is company with many strings to its bow which has undoubtedly caught the eye of more than one suitor over the years. In October 2008 it was announced that US electronics giant Avnet launched a takeover for the company which had been endorsed by Abacus CEO Anthony Westropp. With the offer now unconditional, Members are recommended to accept the terms.

It is testament to last year’s unprecedented level of market volatility that BHP’s stock price shed some 60% of its value from the May peak to the November trough. We can be sure that the negative economic and corporate news that underpinned the volatility will continue flowing this year. However, last year’s stockmarket action has already discounted much of this.