YOU ARE IN
 2004 Second half

Stock Analysis Stock Chart

We have been bullish toward the energy sector for some time, and this in part prompted our buy recommendation on JKX Oil & Gas (JKX). The company is also a good example of the potential benefits of conducting business in emerging markets. It was our belief the resolution of operational and legal issues surrounding the company's key Ukrainian assets would pave the way for a re-rating of the shares. Indeed, a landmark gas deal saw JKX transition from explorer to producer. JKX went on to make significant progress, achieving record turnover, with the outlook for earnings and production growth remaining robust.

However we became mindful that a near trebling of the share price was already factoring in a significant amount of progress. Whilst we believe JKX has excellent long term potential we believed a correction was imminent. We took the opportunity to book a gain of around 168, advising Members to sell half their holdings.

We included Asian based gold miner Avocet Mining (AVM) in our inaugural issue due to our belief it was one of the most attractive gold companies listed on the LSE. The miner had a robust production outlook, and the prospect of reserve upgrades were set to boost the miner's leverage to a rising gold price. Following our recommendation the miner has continued to report excellent operational progress at the core Penjom mine in Malaysia, a joint venture in Tajikistan, as well as at a third promising deposit in Indonesia. A series of positive updates reinforced our belief that the miner can achieve targeted annual gold production of 300,000 ounces by 2006.

However, given the stock had risen close to eight-fold over the past two years, a lengthy period of consolidation seemed likely in our opinion. Accordingly, we advised Members to sell half their holdings and lock in a gain of around 74 percent immediately while maintaining a position for exposure to the long-term gold market we envision over the next several years.

The NYSE listing of Canadian gold and copper miner Placer Dome (NYSE, PDG) got our attention back in May (FAT34). Attracting us to Placer were several factors including a low cost of production, significant reserves, a robust balance sheet, and our opinion that the shares traded at a significant discount to US peers. We believed Placer had significant leverage to a bull market in gold in particular, with a relatively unhedged, geographically diversified, reserve base of 60 million ounces. Not surprisingly a robust rally in both copper and gold prices led to the shares performing strongly since the initial recommendation.

Our decision to reduce our exposure to Placer Dome just four months later was technically based due to the shares approaching resistance on the charts around US$19.00. We believed this level could limit upside potential in the near term, and as such advised Members to sell half their holdings. While locking away gains in excess of 25 percent in such a short period of time is prudent, we continued to maintain exposure based on Placer's leverage to a long term bull market in gold.

As value investors with a bullish long-term view on oil prices, we took the opportunity to recommend North Sea oil producer Dana Petroleum (DNX) at a time when the sector had been underperforming the broader market. We were impressed by the company's track record in exploration, and success in increasing production. In addition, robust cash flows were allowing the company to fund additional exploration and development opportunities thereby underwriting future earnings growth. Subsequent to our recommendation in FAT4 the shares benefited from a sustained rally in oil prices along with a series of production and reserve enhancing deals. One such transaction resulted in Dana swapping 10 million barrels of undeveloped oil equivalent in Indonesia for 5.6 million barrels of low risk, developed North Sea oil reserves. Dana's production profile was set to rise even further in the year ahead as additional oil fields in the North Sea come on stream.

These exciting developments had not gone unnoticed by the market. However, following the stellar rise in the company's share price, a lengthy period of consolidation appeared likely. Balancing this with our long-term view of higher oil prices, led us to recommend a half sale in September, with Members booking a gain of around 70 percent.

Martha Stewart Living Omnimedia (NYSE, MSO), the NYSE listed lifestyle company represented a classic contrarian buying opportunity in August (FAT48) that we could not pass up. We believed the market over reacted to the jail sentence imposed on the company's founder and namesake. We on the other hand were confident the company's financial strength was sufficient to lead an earnings recovery. In addition, as big believers in the value of brands, we were aware that Martha Stewart still had a strong following.

Rarely has Harry Hindsight smiled more broadly. Following our buy recommendation the market reacted strongly to two key announcements and the shares experienced a sharp rally. Having held Martha Stewart for just over a month, we were in position to recommend selling half and booking a substantial 61 percent gain. We decided to maintain some exposure, however due to our belief in the strength of the company's brand and our confidence that various strategic initiatives would underpin long-term earnings growth.

Another earlier market overreaction this time arising from the "Yukos" affair in Russia created the opportunity to recommend Russian gold miner, Peter Hambro Mining (POG) in FAT9. Once again, we did not expect the scandal to have a long-term impact on this well run and fundamentally strong mining company. Instead we were confident that robust production would continue to underpin profitability, whilst the prospect of further production growth offered exiting potential in the year ahead. In addition we believed the potential for consolidation in the Russian gold mining sector would benefit Peter Hambro.

Following our recommendation the shares performed strongly on the back of gold price strength and a number of positive operational developments. However the speed of the stock's ascent (over five fold in two years) suggested to us that a period of near term consolidation was likely. Accordingly, we were more than happy to advise Members to book a gain of around 56 percent less than a year after our initial recommendation by selling half their holdings.

High risk recovery plays are an area Harry specialises in with the results either off the charts or deeply disappointing. In the case of bus and coach builder Henlys (HNL) there is no question that with the benefit of hindsight, the group would have been better to avoid. However, back in 2003 the picture was different. Henlys at the time was undertaking a company-wide restructure that we believed would lead to a recovery. However, following a major profit downgrades, management finally announced that restructuring plans would leave "little or no value" to ordinary shareholders. Ultimately the company's overpayment for US assets and high debt levels became too much to bear. With no prospect of any value being salvaged, Henlys was removed from the Fat Prophets Portfolio.

After a visit in December 2003, we arrived at the clear conclusion that India has an extremely promising future. On track to becoming a global powerhouse over the next few decades, we believe the country has several advantages which will drive the economy and stock market forward. For instance, the country's cost structure, skill base, and intellectual capital rivals those of developed nations. To access these opportunities, we recommended the JP Fleming Indian Investment Trust (JII) as our vehicle of choice for exposure to the fast growing economy after a recent correction. Subsequently the shares traded at an all time high thanks largely to a combination of good stock selection and out-performance of the broader Indian stock market. However, with Indian companies trading on historically expensive multiples, we prudently advised Members to sell half their holdings to lock in some profits less than six months after our initial recommendation.

In April of this year, we were somewhat surprised to see Dragon Oil's (DGO) share price lagging other companies in the sector. As such we believed its shares represented a cheap entry point into the burgeoning energy sector and were confident a re-rating would follow a robust rise in the price of crude. Operationally, Dragon has an excellent exploration record, and we expected to witness further reserves and earnings upgrades as a new drilling campaign gained momentum. And in true Harry Hindsight style, subsequent to our recommendation and following solid exploration results, Dragon was re-rated. The rapid 50 percent climb in four months left the shares likely open to consolidation in the near-term so we took the opportunity to book profits on half our holdings. Maintaining some exposure however was sensible given our bullish view on oil prices and Dragon's leverage thereto.

Click here to return to Harry Hindsight.