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The retail sector is one that we have generally avoided except in cases where we believed turnaround potential offered the promise of a re-rating. As value investors this is a characteristic we are always on the look out for. In such cases, patience is often rewarded as the broader market is attracted to the ensuing recovery.
One should never get too emotional with investing but if we had to pick our sentimental favourite amongst our defensive recommendations, supermarket retailer would be up there. Why? Well mainly because the stock had been fully intact in the Fat Prophets Portfolio for over three years.
There have been many twists and turns in the J Sainsbury (SBRY). Investor disenchantment had persisted for several years as the shares languished. However, a glimmer of greater things to come appeared in 2005, helped along of course by fresh-faced CEO Justin King. A sales led recovery plan was announced in March of that year targeting £2.5 billion in additional sales in three years. Encouragingly by the halfway stage incremental turnover was up £1.3 billion.
Other improvements added to the improving picture as well, such as a successful cost saving programme to compliment seven consecutive quarters of sales and market share growth. In fact the previously much maligned retailer took the mantle of 'Supermarket of the Year' at the Retail Industry Awards in September. The market has reacted in turn positively. So much so the prospective price earnings multiple rose to around 30 times. While the premium in Sainsbury's case reflects both the anticipation of a possible takeover and the group's undervalued property portfolio, as value investors we believed it prudent to lock in some profits. We recommended Members take the opportunity to sell half of their holdings in Sainsbury. At the same time we maintained some exposure to further long-term gains on the back of either a bid or break up of the property portfolio. |